This article is about the conclusion of the study conducted by Oxford University and funded by DFID. Published in May it concluded that unless the authority implemented the report’s recommendations death toll from Corona by end of the year would reach a total of 49,200.
Corona is a disease, of which there is scant understanding all over the world. Person to person contact has been established as modes operandi of this virus and so far it does not seem to be amenable to be dealt with by a vaccine. Every health authority has been blamed for the lack of progress in regaining the freedom of movement we so crave. Some effective strategies to prevent the terrifying spread has been put across and accepted to varying degrees. At the center of all intelligent thinking remains the lollipop word ‘Social Distancing’. When we consider that social distancing transforms into weeks and long months of confinement in our house with no scientific solution to the deadly virus in the next year or more, the term. We should be using is ‘Quarantined Until..’
In this context emerged high scientific credence bearing report from Oxford University which seems to want to propel Nepalese authorities toward implementing ‘High-Intensity Strategy’ at the end of the present interval of harsh steps which
prevents people from buying even essential items of foods with the threat of being shot at on the Kathmandu streets.
The conclusion arrived at by this Oxford Team, unequivocally is that Nepal undergoes more HIS because otherwise by the end of the current year we will face death from Corona total of 49,200 at 25% of total deaths from all causes for that period. The saving in death rate by applying HIS as opposed to Low-Intensity Strategy in that period would be 19 % of the total of that period resulting in Corona death of 33,400-saving 15,800 lives.
The big factor staring us in the face is the total deaths so far of 206, second-lowest in the world. Another way of looking at this is that the United States has approx 551.42 deaths/million to date. The United Kingdom has 623.82 deaths/million to date. Nepal’s deaths/million would work out at 7.10 deaths/million to date.
Few points worth mentioning here:
‘It is also worth highlighting that epidemiological models incorporate a series of assumptions that may change as the outbreak continues and new data becomes available.” This is a direct quotation from the study report and admits that its conclusion that unless the Authorities accept the report’s recommendation, which is admittedly based on assumptions, total deaths will jump from a small 206 so far to a whopping 49,200 by the end of the present year. As to why that would be possible we have a maze of mathematical algorithms that might dazzle the Authorities.
Why does it not make sense for DFID to bring in a scholarly team from Oxford or similarly eminent Institutions instead to study the genetic makeup of our population which makes them resistant to the Coronavirus? Even more interesting would be the possibility of environmental factors which if discovered could benefit the whole world community…
This could be a salutary lesson to Nepalese Authorities not to be unduly dazzled by High Algorithms and seriously encourage scholars who can answer this scientific conundrum what is the reason for the low incidence and mortality from Corona in Nepalese populace. Perhaps ask for massive funding for this very important area of inquiry.
Dr. Narayan Bahadur Thapa FRCS, Edin. is a paediatric surgeon and chairman of Ishan Children and Women’s Hospital as well as ex-director of Kanti Children’s Hospital. He is also the former president of the Nepal Paediatric Society and NAPS.
